Geschrieben von:/Posted by: Norm Pollock at 01 May 2004 03:30:25:
Als Antwort auf:/In reply to: WBEC Ridderkerk new results. geschrieben von:/posted by: Leo Dijksman at 30 April 2004 17:29:27:
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ZZZZZZ 6.421 ½011 2.5/4 = Curious position now, Djinn is at rank 1 but if ZZZZZZ scores 2 points or
Djinn 0.849 ½100 1.5/4 = better in the last round Djinn needs to score at least a 1/2 point more!
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The situation is very complicated. It's like the election in Florida. Leo's point that Djinn needs to score at least a 1/2 point more than ZZZZZZ if ZZZZZZ scores 2 points or more is not complete. Actually if ZZZZZ and Djinn each score 1 1/2 points then ZZZZZ would be temporarily ahead in S-B points pending the results of other games. I'll give it a go because I like doing this type of stuff although I don't expect anyone else to be interested.
An engine gets 1 S-B point for each victory obtained by an engine it defeated. So for example, since Djinn defeated Asterisk 4-0-0, each win by Asterisk will give Djinn 4 points (1 for each win by Djinn over Asterisk). Another example, since Djinn had 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss to Greko, each win by Greko will give Djinn 2 1/2 S-B points. A draw would be half, so each draw by Asterisk will give Djinn 2 S-B points, and each draw by Greko will give Djinn 1 1/4 S-B points.
Now getting back to Division 4. As it stands now with 4 games remaining for each, Djinn and ZZZZZ are tied in points with Djinn ahead by 25 1/2 S-B points. If Djinn and ZZZZZ remain tied in points after the remaining 4 games each, the S-B points will determine the winner. It would seem that Djinn's lead by 25 1/2 S-B points should hold up. But that is not likely because Djinn is playing 4 games against Gully who only has 21 points, while ZZZZZ is playing 4 games against Greko who has 39.5 points.
Suppose Djinn and ZZZZZ each win 3 games out of their remaining 4. Djinn's S-B will increase 3 times 22 + 1 times 2 1/2 (for Greko's win and because Djinn had 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against Greko) for 68 1/2 S-B points, while ZZZZZ's will increase 3 times 40.5 plus 1 times 4 (for Gully's win because ZZZZZ defeated Gully 4-0-0) for 125 1/2 points. Therefore ZZZZZ will gain 57 S-B points on Djinn. That will wipe out Djinn's current lead of 25 1/2 S-B points.
But that's not the end of it. The other 14 engines will cause changes in the S-B points. For example since Djinn beat Asterisk 4-0-0, Djinn will get 16 S-B points if Asterisk wins its last 4 games, while ZZZZZ would only get 8 points because ZZZZZ had 2 wins and 2 loses against Asterisk. So if Asterisk wins all 4 remaining games, Djinn would gain 8 S-B points relative to ZZZZZ.
So the results of the other 14 engines outside of Djinn-Gully and ZZZZZ-Greko will influence the final S-B results. But practically speaking if ZZZZZ wins 3 out of 4 from Greko it is almost certain to win unless Djinn wins at least 3 1/2 out of 4 from Gully.
Let's look at the situation if each wins 2 1/2 points against their final opponent. Djinn would gain 2 1/2 times 22 1/2 plus 1 1/2 times 2 1/2 for a total of 56 1/4 + 3 3/4 = 60 S-B points. ZZZZZ would gain 2 1/2 times 41 plus 1 1/2 times 4 for a total of 102.5 + 6 = 108.5 S-B points. Therefore ZZZZZ would gain 48.5 S-B points on Djinn excluding results of other games. That would wipe out Djinn's current lead of 25 1/2 S-B points. But with a lead of 23 1/2 S-B points, it is still slightly possible for Djinn to win because of other results.
Let's look at the situation if each wins 2 points against their final opponent. Djinn would gain 2 times 23 plus 2 times 2 1/2 for a total of 46 + 5 = 51 S-B points. ZZZZZ would gain 2 times 41.5 plus 2 times 4 for a total of 83 + 8 = 91 S-B points. That would still overtake Djinn's lead of 25.5 S-B points but would be so narrow (15 1/2 S-B points) that other results could determine the winner.
Let's look at the situation if each wins 1 1/2 points against the final opponent. Djinn would gain 1 1/2 time 23 1/2 plus 2 1/2 time 2 1/2 for a total of 35 1/4 + 6 1/4 = 41 1/2 S-B points. ZZZZZ would gain 1 1/2 times 42 plus 2 1/2 times 4 for a total of 63 + 10 = 73 S-B points. This gain of 32 points relative to Djinn would put ZZZZZ sligtly in the lead by 6 1/2 S-B points, pending other results.
Finally let's look at the situation if each wins 1 point against the final opponent. Djinn would gain 1 times 24 plus 2 1/2 times 3 for a total of 24 + 7 1/2 = 31 1/2 S-B points. ZZZZZ would gain 1 times 42 1/2 + 3 times 4 for a total of 42 1/2 + 12 = 54 1/2. This would only be a gain of 23 S-B points so Djinn would temporarily be in the lead by 2 1/2 S-B points pending the outcome of other results.
Prediction: I think Djinn should win because it is playing a weaker opponent and should get at least 3 points, while Greko should get more than 1 point against ZZZZZ.