Geschrieben von:/Posted by: Norm Pollock at 03 May 2004 04:22:00:
Als Antwort auf:/In reply to: Re: WBEC Ridderkerk new results. geschrieben von:/posted by: Tom Likens at 03 May 2004 01:48:24:
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Matheus 2.3 1111 4.0/4 !!
Asterisk 0.4b 0000 0.0/4
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Gerbil 0.2 1110 3.0/4
Sharper 0.17 0001 1.0/4
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These 2 results will lift ZZZZZ over Djinn in the S-B battle if the 2 engines end with 2 points each in their final 4 games. If the two engines finish level with 1.5 points each in their last 4 games, it will be very, very close for the championship of Division 4. If they each get under 1.5 points the advantage is with Djinn. Over 1.5 points the advantage is with ZZZZZ.
For details on the computations see my previous postings on this subject that were posted yesterday.
Hey Everyone,
I'm on vacation, so I can only check the scores every other day or so,
but all I can say is "Kaissa is a CRUEL god!!" Regardless, it's been
exciting to watch (I think). I can't remember a closer contest. I have
to admit though, I wish it had been someone else's engine!!
Also Norm, thanks for all the hard work and calculations. It looks to me,
that realistically for Djinn to win it needs to score 1/2 point more
than ZZZZZ.
--tom
P.S. Well, anyway I believe it made the qualification tournament (although
I'm not 100% sure after looking over your calculations Norm!!)
For anyone who doesn't realize what's going on in Division 4, let me fill you in. There is a possibility that the champion will be decided on S-B points
which is the tie-breaker in case regular points are equal. In fact the champion might be determined by as little as 0.25 of an S-B point. And don't ask me what happens if the S-B points are equal, because I don't know! Ask Leo!
Here is where it stands. After 64 games, Djinn and ZZZZZ are level on regular points. At the momemt Djinn is ahead in S-B points with 1467.75, while ZZZZZ has 1438.50. A lead of 29.25 S-B points. Djinn has 4 games left with Gully who has 21 points and is in 17th place out of 18. ZZZZZ has 4 games left with Greko who has 39.5 points and is in 4th place out of 18.
Djinn has the advantage of a weaker opponent. ZZZZZ has the S-B advantage even though it is currently behind in S-B points by 29.25 S-B points. The latter is explained by the nature of S-B points. A victory over an opponent gives you a quantity of S-B points equal to the regular points of the opponent you defeated. So a victory by Djinn over Gully only gives Djinn 21 S-B points, while a victory by ZZZZZ over Greko gives ZZZZZ 39.5 S-B points.
And to make matters more confusing, the outcome of the "other" 14 engines in the Division will adjust the S-B points already accumulated.
Here is the outlook after many, many calculations that are hopefully accurate. These calculations did not take into consideration the "side effects" of the future results of the "other" 14 engines:
If both Djinn and ZZZZZ capture 3 points in their remaining 4 games:
ZZZZZ will have 1571.5 S-B points to Djinn's 1540.75 S-B points. A lead of 30.75 S-B points for ZZZZZ that will clearly withstand any side effects by the other 14 engines. Advantage ZZZZZ.
If both Djinn and ZZZZZ capture 2 points in their remaining 4 games:
ZZZZZ will have 1534.5 S-B points to Djinn's 1521.75 S-B points. A lead of 12.75 S-B points for ZZZZZ that will most likely withstand any side effects by the other 14 engines. Advantage ZZZZZ.
If both Djinn and ZZZZZ capture 1.5 points in their remaining 4 games:
ZZZZZ will have 1515.25 S-B points to Djinn's 1511.75 S-B points. A lead of 3.5 S-B points for ZZZZZ which is so close, that the winner will be determined by the side effects of the "other" 14 engines. Toss Up, but this outcome is highly unlikely.
If both Djinn and ZZZZZ capture 1 point in their remaining 4 games:
ZZZZZ will have 1485.5 S-B points to Djinn's 1500.75 S-B points. A lead of 15.25 S-B points for Djinn that will most likely withstand any side effects by the other 14 engines. Advantage Djinn, but this outcome is highly unlikely.
Prediction: Djinn should do better against Gully than ZZZZZ does against Greko, so the favorite is Djinn. However if they end up level on regular points, it is highly likely that each has scored 2 or more points out of 4, so if that is the case, ZZZZZ will win the S-B tiebreaker.